Cross-table of forecast time horizons (+6h, +1 day, +2 days, +3 days, +4 days, +5 days, +6 days) for each model and analyzed parameters (average wind, maximum wind gust and wind direction). Shows the winning model label in each specific cell along with its Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and MBE (Mean Bias Error).
ℹ️ Quick Glossary:
• MAE (Mean Absolute Error): The "magnitude of the error", regardless of whether it is an overestimation or underestimation.
• MBE (Mean Bias Error): Indicates whether the model tends to predict more or less wind than actual (e.g., -4 km/h means it tends to underestimate, so actual wind will likely be higher).
• RMSE (Root Mean Square Error): Similar to MAE, but penalizes large errors more heavily. When RMSE is noticeably higher than MAE, it means the model is usually reasonably accurate but occasionally makes large mistakes — rather than being consistently off by a similar amount every time.
• n: Number of valid forecast-vs-reality comparisons accumulated so far for that specific parameter, model, and forecast horizon. Since the study runs continuously, this number keeps growing over time, so results become statistically more reliable the longer the study runs. The system and automatic analysis generate approximately 2000 new samples per day (this rate assumes normal system uptime, station and system operation and only valid matched samples are counted).
For all statistical calculations on the Direction parameter, a minimum speed threshold of 8 km/h has been established (slightly higher than the ICAO/METAR standard of 3 knots / 5.5 km/h). The goal is to minimize what is called in meteorological statistics "the noise of calms" (large random direction fluctuations in light winds).
ℹ️ Global Score (0-10) is calculated weighted: Penalty = (Avg MAE × 0.4) + (Gust MAE × 0.3) + (Dir Error × 0.08 × 0.3). Score = max(0, 10 - Penalty / 1.5).
ℹ️ AromeHD does not compete in the +2 and +3 days horizons, and ICON-EU does not go beyond +3 days. From +4 to +6 days only ECMWF is evaluated (no model comparison, just how its accuracy decays), so those horizons are excluded from the overall ranking.
