2010 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota
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November 2, 2010
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 County results Noem: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Herseth Sandlin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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U.S. Representative from South Dakota
Governor of South Dakota
U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security
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| Elections in South Dakota |
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The 2010 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 2, 2010. Voters selected a representative for their single at-large district, who runs on a statewide ballot. On June 8, 2010, the Republicans nominated Kristi Noem, Assistant Majority Leader of the South Dakota House of Representatives, and the Democrats nominated the incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. B. Thomas Marking ran as an Independent candidate. In the general election, Noem defeated Herseth Sandlin, winning 48.1 percent of the vote to 45.9 percent for Herseth Sandlin.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Kristi Noem, Assistant Majority Leader of the South Dakota House of Representatives[1]
Lost in primary
[edit]- Blake Curd, member of the South Dakota House of Representatives[3]
- Chris Nelson, Secretary of State of South Dakota (2003-2011)[4]
Withdrawn
[edit]Declined
[edit]- Shantel Krebs, member of the South Dakota House of Representatives (2015-2019)[7]
Primary results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kristi Noem | 34,527 | 42.1 | |
| Republican | Chris Nelson | 28,380 | 34.6 | |
| Republican | Blake Curd | 19,134 | 23.3 | |
| Total votes | 82,041 | 100.0 | ||
Campaign
[edit]Issues
[edit]During the general election campaign, Republicans criticized Herseth Sandlin's voting record. They also criticized her lobbyist husband's clients list, noting that the companies had interests in legislation that would come before Congress.[9] Noem pointed out that the National Association of Broadcasters paid Herseth Sandlin's husband, Max Sandlin, a lobbyist and former Congressman, $320,000 during the years 2008 and 2009 to lobby on their behalf, including a bill co-sponsored by Herseth Sandlin called the Local Radio Freedom Act.[9][10] Herseth Sandlin responded that Noem's example was "laughable".[10] The Rapid City Journal editorial board stated that Herseth Sandlin should not be laughing at a legitimate concern.[11] Roll Call called the Republican effort an attempt "to stoke anti-Beltway emotions".[9] Herseth Sandlin's campaign responded that she did not allow family members to lobby her or her staff.[9] According to a Washington attorney, Herseth Sandlin's policy seemed compliant with House ethics rules tightened in 2007, though Republicans charged that Herseth Sandlin was violating the spirit of the conflict-of-interest rules.[9] "The Sunlight Foundation, Public Citizen and other watchdog groups are highly critical of Herseth Sandlin and other Members whose relatives work in Congressional corridors," according to Roll Call.[9] The groups have said the House ethics rules should be comparable to the Senate's and should ban all lobbying "under the Dome" by Member's relatives.[9]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) |
Kristi Noem (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[12] | February 23, 2010 | 49% | 34% |
| Rasmussen Reports[13] | March 25, 2010 | 46% | 35% |
| Rasmussen Reports[14] | April 26, 2010 | 50% | 35% |
| Rasmussen Reports[15] | May 27, 2010 | 46% | 43% |
| Rasmussen Reports[16] | June 14, 2010 | 41% | 53% |
| Rasmussen Reports[16][17] | July 6, 2010 | 44% | 49% |
| Rasmussen Reports[18][19] | August 3, 2010 | 42% | 51% |
| Rasmussen Reports[20] | September 8, 2010 | 47% | 45% |
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | October 4, 2010 | 44% | 47% |
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | October 20, 2010 | 44% | 49% |
| Nielson Brothers Polling[22] | October 20–22, 2010 | 42% | 40% |
On October 24, 2010, Nate Silver of The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight.com blog predicted that there was a 69.9% chance that Noem would defeat Sandlin.[23]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[24] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[25] | Tilt R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[27] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[28] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[29] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[29] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
Fundraising
[edit]The race saw each candidate spend over $1.75 million and was the first in Herseth Sandlin's career where she was outspent.[30]
Funding from political parties and interest groups totaled $2,651,621 for the race, with 78% benefiting Noem.[31] Groups supporting Herseth-Sandlin included the DCCC and CUNA. Noem was supported by the American Action Network, the NRCC, and the American Future Fund.[31]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kristi Noem | 153,703 | 48.12% | |
| Democratic | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (incumbent) | 146,589 | 45.89% | |
| Independent | B. Thomas Marking | 19,134 | 5.99% | |
| Total votes | 319,426 | 100.00% | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | ||||
By county
[edit]| County[32] | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin Democratic |
Kristi Noem Republican |
B. Thomas Marking Independent |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Aurora | 707 | 50.72% | 593 | 42.54% | 94 | 6.74% | -114 | -8.18% | 1,394 |
| Beadle | 3,541 | 51.32% | 2,941 | 42.62% | 418 | 6.06% | -600 | -8.70% | 6,900 |
| Bennett | 502 | 47.45% | 499 | 47.16% | 57 | 5.39% | -3 | -0.28% | 1,058 |
| Bon Homme | 1,334 | 47.07% | 1,265 | 44.64% | 235 | 8.29% | -69 | -2.43% | 2,834 |
| Brookings | 6,195 | 55.57% | 4,147 | 37.19% | 808 | 7.25% | -2,049 | -18.38% | 11,150 |
| Brown | 8,100 | 55.95% | 5,712 | 39.46% | 665 | 4.59% | -2,388 | -16.50% | 14,477 |
| Brule | 1,017 | 47.35% | 971 | 45.20% | 160 | 7.45% | -46 | -2.14% | 2,148 |
| Buffalo | 351 | 77.48% | 91 | 20.09% | 11 | 2.43% | -260 | -57.40% | 453 |
| Butte | 1,128 | 30.36% | 2,357 | 63.43% | 231 | 6.22% | 1,229 | 33.07% | 3,716 |
| Campbell | 301 | 38.10% | 452 | 57.22% | 37 | 4.68% | 151 | 19.11% | 790 |
| Charles Mix | 1,620 | 46.13% | 1,710 | 48.69% | 182 | 5.18% | 90 | 2.56% | 3,512 |
| Clark | 787 | 46.68% | 773 | 45.85% | 126 | 7.47% | -14 | -0.83% | 1,686 |
| Clay | 2,802 | 59.74% | 1,642 | 35.01% | 246 | 5.25% | -1,160 | -24.73% | 4,690 |
| Codington | 4,684 | 45.27% | 4,983 | 48.16% | 679 | 6.56% | 299 | 2.89% | 10,346 |
| Corson | 450 | 51.61% | 362 | 41.51% | 60 | 6.88% | -88 | -10.09% | 872 |
| Custer | 1,278 | 32.20% | 2,378 | 59.91% | 313 | 7.89% | 1,100 | 27.71% | 3,969 |
| Davison | 3,437 | 47.22% | 3,467 | 47.64% | 374 | 5.14% | 30 | 0.41% | 7,278 |
| Day | 1,668 | 60.48% | 937 | 33.97% | 153 | 5.55% | -731 | -26.50% | 2,758 |
| Deuel | 999 | 48.83% | 877 | 42.86% | 170 | 8.31% | -122 | -5.96% | 2,046 |
| Dewey | 1,070 | 67.89% | 442 | 28.05% | 64 | 4.06% | -628 | -39.85% | 1,576 |
| Douglas | 489 | 29.40% | 1,083 | 65.12% | 91 | 5.47% | 594 | 35.72% | 1,663 |
| Edmunds | 834 | 46.46% | 838 | 46.69% | 123 | 6.85% | 4 | 0.22% | 1,795 |
| Fall River | 1,056 | 33.89% | 1,824 | 58.54% | 236 | 7.57% | 768 | 24.65% | 3,116 |
| Faulk | 466 | 42.87% | 553 | 50.87% | 68 | 6.26% | 87 | 8.00% | 1,087 |
| Grant | 1,638 | 46.80% | 1,597 | 45.63% | 265 | 7.57% | -41 | -1.17% | 3,500 |
| Gregory | 785 | 38.24% | 1,129 | 54.99% | 139 | 6.77% | 344 | 16.76% | 2,053 |
| Haakon | 254 | 24.54% | 718 | 69.37% | 63 | 6.09% | 464 | 44.83% | 1,035 |
| Hamlin | 963 | 36.39% | 1,463 | 55.29% | 220 | 8.31% | 500 | 18.90% | 2,646 |
| Hand | 804 | 43.70% | 906 | 49.24% | 130 | 7.07% | 102 | 5.54% | 1,840 |
| Hanson | 594 | 34.06% | 1,048 | 60.09% | 102 | 5.85% | 454 | 26.03% | 1,744 |
| Harding | 127 | 18.93% | 490 | 73.03% | 54 | 8.05% | 363 | 54.10% | 671 |
| Hughes | 3,432 | 44.54% | 3,849 | 49.95% | 425 | 5.52% | 417 | 5.41% | 7,706 |
| Hutchinson | 1,176 | 36.74% | 1,822 | 56.92% | 203 | 6.34% | 646 | 20.18% | 3,201 |
| Hyde | 277 | 38.47% | 412 | 57.22% | 31 | 4.31% | 135 | 18.75% | 720 |
| Jackson | 369 | 38.36% | 534 | 55.51% | 59 | 6.13% | 165 | 17.15% | 962 |
| Jerauld | 581 | 51.37% | 461 | 40.76% | 89 | 7.87% | -120 | -10.61% | 1,131 |
| Jones | 180 | 30.51% | 377 | 63.90% | 33 | 5.59% | 197 | 33.39% | 590 |
| Kingsbury | 1,229 | 49.66% | 1,044 | 42.18% | 202 | 8.16% | -185 | -7.47% | 2,475 |
| Lake | 2,458 | 47.23% | 2,414 | 46.39% | 332 | 6.38% | -44 | -0.85% | 5,204 |
| Lawrence | 4,019 | 39.41% | 5,431 | 53.26% | 747 | 7.33% | 1,412 | 13.85% | 10,197 |
| Lincoln | 7,699 | 42.77% | 9,440 | 52.44% | 862 | 4.79% | 1,741 | 9.67% | 18,001 |
| Lyman | 604 | 43.14% | 677 | 48.36% | 119 | 8.50% | 73 | 5.21% | 1,400 |
| Marshall | 1,107 | 59.77% | 660 | 35.64% | 85 | 4.59% | -447 | -24.14% | 1,852 |
| McCook | 1,126 | 44.82% | 1,216 | 48.41% | 170 | 6.77% | 90 | 3.58% | 2,512 |
| McPherson | 447 | 37.03% | 692 | 57.33% | 68 | 5.63% | 245 | 20.30% | 1,207 |
| Meade | 3,049 | 32.45% | 5,741 | 61.10% | 606 | 6.45% | 2,692 | 28.65% | 9,396 |
| Mellette | 373 | 49.21% | 320 | 42.22% | 65 | 8.58% | -53 | -6.99% | 758 |
| Miner | 581 | 52.11% | 458 | 41.08% | 76 | 6.82% | -123 | -11.03% | 1,115 |
| Minnehaha | 32,430 | 49.82% | 28,968 | 44.50% | 3,698 | 5.68% | -3,462 | -5.32% | 65,096 |
| Moody | 1,433 | 52.20% | 1,111 | 40.47% | 201 | 7.32% | -322 | -11.73% | 2,745 |
| Pennington | 13,597 | 36.66% | 21,489 | 57.94% | 2,002 | 5.40% | 7,892 | 21.28% | 37,088 |
| Perkins | 418 | 30.36% | 859 | 62.38% | 100 | 7.26% | 441 | 32.03% | 1,377 |
| Potter | 518 | 39.18% | 745 | 56.35% | 59 | 4.46% | 227 | 17.17% | 1,322 |
| Roberts | 2,077 | 53.92% | 1,507 | 39.12% | 268 | 6.96% | -570 | -14.80% | 3,852 |
| Sanborn | 578 | 49.66% | 514 | 44.16% | 72 | 6.19% | -64 | -5.50% | 1,164 |
| Shannon | 2,260 | 90.29% | 191 | 7.63% | 52 | 2.08% | -2,069 | -82.66% | 2,503 |
| Spink | 1,564 | 53.20% | 1,201 | 40.85% | 175 | 5.95% | -363 | -12.35% | 2,940 |
| Stanley | 601 | 42.12% | 726 | 50.88% | 100 | 7.01% | 125 | 8.76% | 1,427 |
| Sully | 270 | 36.19% | 427 | 57.24% | 49 | 6.57% | 157 | 21.05% | 746 |
| Todd | 1,500 | 74.93% | 421 | 21.03% | 81 | 4.05% | -1,079 | -53.90% | 2,002 |
| Tripp | 949 | 37.84% | 1,390 | 55.42% | 169 | 6.74% | 441 | 17.58% | 2,508 |
| Turner | 1,676 | 44.07% | 1,875 | 49.30% | 252 | 6.63% | 199 | 5.23% | 3,803 |
| Union | 2,408 | 39.89% | 3,356 | 55.60% | 272 | 4.51% | 948 | 15.71% | 6,036 |
| Walworth | 871 | 38.90% | 1,229 | 54.89% | 139 | 6.21% | 358 | 15.99% | 2,239 |
| Yankton | 4,336 | 50.07% | 3,653 | 42.18% | 671 | 7.75% | -683 | -7.89% | 8,660 |
| Ziebach | 415 | 60.32% | 245 | 35.61% | 28 | 4.07% | -170 | -24.71% | 688 |
| Totals | 146,589 | 45.89% | 153,703 | 48.12% | 19,134 | 5.99% | 7,114 | 2.23% | 319,426 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Douglas (largest city: Armour)
- Union (Largest city: Dakota Dunes)
- Hutchinson (largest city: Parkston)
- Lincoln (largest city: Sioux Falls)
- Turner (largest city: Parker)
- Butte (largest city: Belle Fourche)
- Perkins (largest city: Belle Fourche)
- Tripp (largest city: Winner)
- Fall River (largest city: Hot Springs)
- Lawrence (largest city: Spearfish)
- Meade (largest city: Sturgis)
- Pennington (largest city: Rapid City)
- Gregory (largest city: Gregory)
- Stanley (largest city: Fort Pierre)
- Sully (largest city: Onida)
- Hughes (largest city: Pierre)
- Hyde (largest city: Highmore)
- McPherson (largest city: Eureka)
- Potter (largest city: Gettysburg)
- Walworth (largest city: Mobridge)
- Campbell (largest city: Herreid)
- Hanson (largest city: Alexandria)
- Codington (largest city: Watertown)
- Davison (largest city: Mitchell)
- Hamlin (largest city: Estelline)
- McCook (largest city: Salem)
- Charles Mix (Largest city: Wagner)
- Edmunds (largest city: Ipswich)
- Faulk (largest city: Faulkton)
- Hand (largest city: Miller)
- Jackson (largest city: Kadoka)
- Lyman (largest city: Lower Brule)
- Custer (largest city: Custer)
- Douglas (largest city: Armour)
- Haakon (largest city: Philip)
- Harding (largest city: Buffalo)
- Jones (largest city: Murdo)
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- 1 2 "Statewide Candidate List" (PDF). sd.gov. September 30, 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 16, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010.
- ↑ "Herseth Sandlin running for reelection - The Scorecard". Politico. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ↑ "Curd for Congress". www.curdforcongress.com. Archived from the original on 15 January 2010. Retrieved 4 December 2018.
- ↑ "Help Chris Make South Dakota Better!". Nelson For SD.
- ↑ "Yankton Press & Dakotan > Archives > News > S.D. Legislator Considers U.S. House". Yankton.net. September 4, 2009. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ↑ "It's Official: Thad Wasson Ends Congressional Campaign, Endorses Curd". Dakotavoice.com. January 7, 2010. Archived from the original on August 19, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ↑ "Yankton Press & Dakotan > Archives > News > Krebs Decides Against U.S. House Run". Yankton.net. November 12, 2009. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ↑ "2010 South Dakota Official Primary Election Results". South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 10, 2023.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Murray, Matthew (July 26, 2010). "GOP Assails Sandlin Family Ties". Roll Call. Retrieved March 7, 2011.
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's family situation is becoming a major headache for the South Dakota Democrat in her tough re-election bid, with Republicans ramping up their criticisms of her voting record — and her lobbyist husband's extensive list of clients. In March 2007, the lawmaker married lobbyist and ex-Rep. Max Sandlin, a Texas Democrat who lost his seat to Rep. Louie Gohmert (R) in 2004.
- 1 2 Montgomery, David (September 27, 2010). "Noem targets Herseth Sandlin's lobbyist husband in heated House race". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved March 7, 2011.
As Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin battles Republican challenger Kristi Noem in this fall's election, she has found herself under attack from Republicans for her husband's day job -– political lobbyist. Noem and her campaign are claiming Herseth Sandlin is being improperly influenced by lobbying contracts of Max Sandlin, a former Texas congressman who married the congresswoman in 2007.
- ↑ Rapid City Journal Editorial Board (September 30, 2010). "Sandlin's job no laughing matter". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved March 7, 2011.
Herseth Sandlin's claim that transparency and disclosure are adequate doesn't cut it. She should not be laughing off this legitimate concern.
- ↑ "Toplines - 2010 South Dakota House of Representatives Election - February 23, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports®". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- ↑ "Toplines - 2010 South Dakota House of Representatives Election - March 25, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports®". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- ↑ "Toplines - 2010 South Dakota House of Representatives Election - April 21, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports®". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- ↑ "Toplines - South Dakota House of Representatives Election - May 27, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports®". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- 1 2 "Toplines - South Dakota House of Representatives Election - June 10, 2010 - Rasmussen Reports®". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- ↑ Woster, Kevin. Poll: Herseth Sandlin gains back ground, but Noem still leads in House race, Rapid City Journal, July 9, 2010.
- ↑ "Rasmussen Reports".[permanent dead link]
- ↑ Rasmussen, Scott (August 6, 2010). "Election 2010: South Dakota House of Representatives". Rasmussen Reports. Retrieved August 7, 2010.
Republican Kristi Noem again passes the 50% mark of support this month against incumbent Democrat Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin in the race for South Dakota's only House seat.
- ↑ "Election 2010: South Dakota House of Representatives". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- 1 2 "Election 2010: South Dakota House of Representatives". www.rasmussenreports.com.
- ↑ "Nielson Brothers Polling". Archived from the original on October 28, 2010.
- ↑ Silver, Nate (October 20, 2010). "FiveThirtyEight Forecasts South Dakota At Large District". The New York Times. Retrieved October 24, 2010.
- ↑ "The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 House Competitive Races". The Cook Political Report. November 1, 2010. Archived from the original on November 4, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- ↑ Rothenberg Political Report (November 1, 2010). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 1, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- ↑ Crystal Ball, as of November 1, 2010[update]
- ↑ RealClearPolitics, as of November 1, 2010[update]
- ↑ "2010 House Ratings Chart". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- 1 2 "House Race Ratings". nytimes.com. The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 7, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
- ↑ Montgomery, David (October 22, 2010). "Noem cruises past Herseth Sandlin in campaign funding in U.S. House race". Rapid City Journal.
- 1 2 "Campaign cash: South Dakota's 1st congressional district". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 9, 2010.
- 1 2 Nelson, Chris (November 9, 2010). "State Canvass" (PDF). Secretary of State of South Dakota. Archived (PDF) from the original on August 9, 2026. Retrieved August 14, 2026.
External links
[edit]- Elections from the South Dakota Secretary of State
- U.S. Congress Candidates for South Dakota Archived September 30, 2010, at the Wayback Machine at Project Vote Smart
- 2010 South Dakota General Election: Kristi Noem (R) vs Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)[link removed] graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- House - South Dakota from the Cook Political Report
- South Dakota - At-Large from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets
- 2010 South Dakota - 1st District from CQ Politics
- Race profile at The New York Times
Debates
- Sparks fly in first U.S. House debate (video)[permanent dead link], Jonathan Ellis, Argus Leader, August 12, 2010, includes full video (1:29:40) at the Sioux Empire Fair (1st debate)
- Kristi Noem says no to school vouchers[permanent dead link], Jonathan Ellis, Argus Leader, August 14, 2010, at the Sioux Empire Fair (2nd debate)
- Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Kristi Noem debate health care legislation[permanent dead link], Megan Luther, Argus Leader, August 18, 2010, includes full video (1:15:31) at Dakotafest (3rd debate)