2026 United States Senate election in Idaho
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November 3, 2026
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| Elections in Idaho |
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Idaho will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Idaho. Republican incumbent Jim Risch is seeking a fourth term. He is being challenged by independent former state representative Todd Achilles.
Primary elections were held on May 19.[1] Risch won the Republican nomination with 67.3% of the vote, facing minimal opposition. The Democratic nomination was won by realtor David Roth, who was the nominee in 2022, but after Achilles entered the race in July with the support of Democratic leaders, Roth withdrew near the end of the month.[2]
Republicans have not lost a Senate race in Idaho since 1974.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Jim Risch, incumbent U.S. senator[3]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Jim Risch
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[8]
- Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of April 29, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jim Risch (R) | $3,937,857 | $2,402,936 | $3,729,780 |
| Denny Lave (R) | $164,600 | $109,923 | $54,677 |
| Josh Roy (R) | $27,384 | $14,495 | $12,889 |
| Joe Evans (R) | $7,741 | $7,650 | $91 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[10] | |||
Results
[edit]
Risch
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Risch
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Roy
- 30-40%
- 40-50%
- 50-60%
- 60-70%
Evans
- 30-40%
- 40-50%
- 50-60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Risch (incumbent) | 156,140 | 67.3 | |
| Republican | Josh Roy | 33,188 | 14.3 | |
| Republican | Joe Evans | 32,636 | 14.1 | |
| Republican | Denny LaVe | 10,182 | 4.4 | |
| Total votes | 232,146 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Withdrew after nomination
[edit]Eliminated in primary
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]David Roth
- Newspapers
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of April 29, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| David Roth (D) | $8,642 | $8,186 | $1,051 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[10] | |||
Results
[edit]
Roth
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Moore
- 50–60%
Roth-Moore Tie
- 40%
Roth
- 30-40%
- 40-50%
- 50-60%
- 60-70%
- 70-80%
- 80-90%
- 90-100%
Moore
- 40-50%
- 50-60%
- 60-70%
- 70-80%
- 80-90%
- 90-100%
Bonds
- 30-40%
- 40-50%
- 50-60%
- 60-70%
- 70-80%
- 80-90%
- 90-100%
Tie
No Votes
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | David Roth | 29,534 | 61.9 | |
| Democratic | Brad Moore | 14,863 | 31.1 | |
| Democratic | Nickolas Bonds | 3,344 | 7.0 | |
| Total votes | 47,741 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Matt Loesby, nominee for Idaho's 1st congressional district in 2024[14][5]
Results
[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Matt Loesby | 855 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 855 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Todd Achilles, former Democratic state representative from the 16th district (2024–2025)[15][5]
- Natalie Fleming, software developer[16][5]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Todd Achilles (I) | $692,245 | $506,311 | $194,226 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[10] | |||
General election
[edit]Campaign
[edit]On July 8, 2026, the Ada County Democratic Central Committee sent Roth a letter giving him until August 12 to prove that his campaign "has turned a corner" by raising $50,000 and producing a campaign plan, or the committee would consider endorsing independent candidate Todd Achilles instead. The committee said it was concerned that Roth's campaign was "not positioned to meet the moment” and argued that "we can't afford to let this moment slip away in the best political environment Idaho has seen in decades." Roth called the demands "completely ridiculous" and said he had no intention of complying, while accusing local Democratic leaders of trying to force him out of the race in favor of Achilles.[17] On July 28, Roth announced he would drop out of the race.[2]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Solid R | September 15, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ[19] | Safe R | September 18, 2026 |
| The Economist[20][a] | Likely R | September 21, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne[21] | Likely R | September 24, 2026 |
| Fox News[22] | Solid R | August 18, 2026 |
| Inside Elections[23] | Solid R | September 17, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[24] | Solid R | September 18, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Safe R | August 26, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin[26] | Solid R | September 19, 2026 |
| Split Ticket[27] | Safe R | September 20, 2026 |
Endorsements
[edit]Jim Risch (R)
- Statewide officials
- Butch Otter, former governor of Idaho (2007–2019) and former U.S. representative from ID-01 (2001–2007)[28]
- Organizations
Todd Achilles (I)
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jim Risch (R) | $4,431,093 | $3,089,996 | $3,535,956 |
| Todd Achilles (I) | $692,245 | $506,311 | $194,227 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[32] | |||
Polling
[edit]- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Jim Risch (R) |
Todd Achilles (I) |
Other/ Undecided[b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[33] | through September 16, 2026 | September 18, 2026 | 40.3% | 38.9% | 20.8% | Risch +1.4% |
| Silver Bulletin[26] | through August 13, 2026 | September 18, 2026 | 44.7% | 25.8% | 29.5% | Risch +18.9% |
| Average | 42.5% | 32.4% | 25.1% | Risch +10.1% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Jim Risch (R) |
Todd Achilles (I) |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Targeting Research[34] | September 13–16, 2026 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 39% | 50% | — | 11% | ||||||||
| 39% | 46% | 5%[d] | 11% | ||||||||||||
| Peak Insights (R)[35][A] | August 11–13, 2026 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 18% | 12%[e] | 17% | ||||||||
| The Bullfinch Group[36][37][B] | August 4–7, 2026 | 608 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 33% | 38% | — | 29% | ||||||||
| 34% | 30% | 4%[f] | 32% | ||||||||||||
| Change Research (D)[38][C] | July 28–30, 2026 | 1,213 (LV) | ± 3.0% | ||||||||||||
| 45% | 21% | 11%[g] | 22% | ||||||||||||
| The Bullfinch Group[39][B] | May 29 – June 1, 2026 | 774 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 36% | — | 24% | ||||||||
| Primary elections | |||||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (I)[40][B] | March 16–17, 2026 | 639 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 34% | — | 18% | ||||||||
Hypothetical polling
- Jim Risch vs. David Roth vs. Todd Achilles
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[h] |
Margin of error |
Jim Risch (R) |
David Roth (D) |
Todd Achilles (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (I)[41][D] | July 28–30, 2026 | 1,213 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 13% | 19% | 6%[i] | 18% |
| Peak Insights (R)[42][A] | June 6–7, 2026 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 15% | 7% | 7%[j] | 14% |
Jim Risch vs. David Roth
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Jim Risch (R) |
David Roth (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group[43][B] | May 29 – June 1, 2026 | 774 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 33% | 17% |
Notes
[edit]- ↑ The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
- ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- 1 2 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Matt Loesby (L) with 5%
- ↑ Natalie Fleming (I) with 9%; Matt Loesby (L) with 2%; "None" with 1%
- ↑ Matt Loesby (L) with 4%
- ↑ Natalie Fleming (I) with 8%; "Would not vote" with 3%; Matt Loesby (L) with 2%
- ↑ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Natalie Fleming (I) with 3%; "Would not vote" with 2%; Matt Loesby (L) with 1%
- ↑ Fleming with 5%, Loesby with 2%
- Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ↑ "2026 State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures. September 26, 2025. Archived from the original on May 9, 2026. Retrieved September 27, 2025.
- 1 2 3 Guido, Laura (July 28, 2026). "Idaho Democrat David Roth ends campaign for US Senate seat held by Risch". Idaho Capital Sun. Retrieved July 28, 2026.
- ↑ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (April 7, 2025). "Morning Digest: North Carolina GOP comes 'one step closer to stealing an election'". The Downballot. Retrieved July 3, 2025.
- ↑ "EVANS, JOE - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. January 6, 2025. Retrieved July 22, 2025.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Pfannenstiel, Kyle (February 28, 2026). "Who's running to represent Idaho in Congress in the 2026 election? Incumbents face challengers. • Idaho Capital Sun". Idaho Capital Sun. Retrieved March 14, 2026.
- ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1950397". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved February 25, 2026.
- ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1926913". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved November 30, 2025.
- ↑ Ratliff, Seth (March 20, 2025). "President Trump endorses Senator Risch well ahead of mid-term elections". KIFI-TV. Retrieved July 27, 2025.
- ↑ "Thank You for Supporting Pro-Israel Incumbent Members of Congress". AIPAC Political Portal. Retrieved April 30, 2026.
- 1 2 3 "2026 Election United States Senate - Idaho". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 8, 2026.
- 1 2 3 "Idaho | Primary Election - May 19, 2026". Idaho Secretary of State. May 19, 2026. Retrieved May 27, 2026.
- ↑ Scheufler, Jordan; Quinn, Cole (June 15, 2025). ""No Kings" protest in Twin Falls sees hundreds rally at Five Points". KMVT. Retrieved August 26, 2025.
Speakers at the Twin Falls event included David Roth, who is running for Jim Risch's seat in the U.S. Senate in 2026
- ↑ "Endorsement: Three Democrats running in primary for U.S. Senate". Idaho Statesman. Retrieved May 15, 2026.
The Idaho Statesman editorial board endorses David Roth in this race. Roth has the best chance of winning in the general election, likely against Risch. Roth has run for federal office in Idaho before, including against U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson in 2022.
- ↑ "Idaho citizens seek elected offices". The Lewiston Tribune. February 28, 2026. Retrieved March 11, 2026.
- ↑ Guido, Laura (July 1, 2025). "Idaho lawmaker steps down from Legislature to run for U.S. Senate seat as independent candidate". Idaho Capital Sun. Retrieved July 3, 2025.
- ↑ "FLEMING, NATALIE M - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. June 20, 2025. Retrieved July 22, 2025.
- ↑ Donovan Smith, Orion (July 18, 2026). "Idaho They think Jim Risch could be beaten, but they aren't sure they want a Democrat to run for Senate". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved July 25, 2026.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Senate Ratings". Decision Desk HQ. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Senate Forecast". The Economist. Retrieved September 21, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Congressional Forecast". FiftyPlusOne. Retrieved September 23, 2026.
- ↑ Numa, Rémy (August 18, 2026). "Fox News Power Rankings: As Democrats turn left, Black voters tap the brakes". Fox News. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2026". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- 1 2 Silver, Nate; McKown-Dawson, Eli (September 19, 2026) [August 11, 2026]. "FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast". Silver Bulletin. Archived from the original on September 20, 2026. Retrieved September 20, 2026 – via Substack.
- ↑ "Split Ticket 2026 Midterms Model". The Argument. Retrieved September 19, 2026 – via Substack.
- ↑ Otter, Butch (September 13, 2026). "Otter: Risch serves Idahoans well in the Senate. He has my vote". Yahoo News. Retrieved September 18, 2026.
{{cite web}}: Text "Opinion" ignored (help) - ↑ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Senator Jim Risch for U.S. Senate in Idaho". United States Chamber of Commerce. September 17, 2026. Retrieved September 18, 2026.
- ↑ "Candidates". Forward Party. Retrieved June 18, 2026.
- ↑ ""Largest Federal Employee Union Endorses Idaho's Todd Achilles for Election to U.S. Senate"". AFGE. Retrieved September 2, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Election United States Senate - Idaho". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 8, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Senate Polling". Race to the White House. Retrieved September 18, 2026.
- ↑ "Idaho Statewide General Election Survey" (PDF). Advanced Targeting Research. September 17, 2026. Retrieved September 18, 2026.
- ↑ @JacobRubashkin (August 15, 2026). "U.S. Senator Jim Risch Maintains Wide Lead, Even After Roth Dropped Out to Help Achilles" (Tweet). Retrieved August 17, 2026 – via X (formerly Twitter).
- ↑ Lloyd, Brett (August 13, 2026). "For Immediate Release: Independent Todd Achilles Within 4 Points Among Likely Voters". The Bullfinch Group. Retrieved August 13, 2026.
- ↑ bmloyd (August 19, 2026). "For Immediate Release: Independent Todd Achilles Leads Incumbent Jim Risch in Two-Way Head-to-Head Matchup". Bullfinch Group. Retrieved August 20, 2026.
- ↑ "Stegner for Idaho | July 2026 Toplines". Change Research. Retrieved August 14, 2026.
- ↑ Loyd, Brett (June 2, 2026). "For Immediate Release: Independent Todd Achilles Surges on Informed Ballot". The Bullfinch Group. Retrieved June 2, 2026.
- ↑ Williams, Jim (March 20, 2026). "Senator Risch at Risk in a One-on-One Matchup With Independent Todd Achilles". Public Policy Polling. Retrieved March 21, 2026.
- ↑ "Stegner for Idaho | July 2026 Toplines". Change Research. Retrieved August 14, 2026.
- ↑ "Peak Insights poll 6/6-6/7 LV". X (formerly Twitter). PollTracker2024. Retrieved June 13, 2026.
- ↑ Loyd, Brett (June 2, 2026). "For Immediate Release: Independent Todd Achilles Surges on Informed Ballot". The Bullfinch Group. Retrieved June 2, 2026.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites