2026 United States Senate election in Montana
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November 3, 2026
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| Elections in Montana |
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 3, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Republican U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, Democratic Air Force officer Alani Bankhead, and independent former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar are the major candidates. Republican incumbent Steve Daines is not seeking a third term.
Primaries were held on June 2. In the Republican primary, Daines announced he would seek re-election, but withdrew minutes before the filing deadline and endorsed Alme, who filed to run the same day. As the only major Republican candidate, Alme was nominated with 76.2% of the vote. Bankhead won the Democratic nomination with 43.7% of the vote over former state representative Reilly Neill and tribal historic preservation officer Michael Black Wolf. Bodnar, supported by former Democratic senator Jon Tester, launched an independent campaign shortly after resigning from the University of Montana.
This is the first open Senate election in Montana since 1976.
Background
[edit]Montana is considered to be a red state at the federal level, having not voted for a Democratic president since Bill Clinton's plurality victory in 1992.[1] Recently, the state has also been trending red on a statewide level, as Republicans flipped the governorship in 2020,[2] and the Class I Senate seat in 2024.[3]
Republican primary
[edit]The filing deadline for participation in primaries was March 5, 2026, at 5:00 p.m.[4] At 4:52 p.m. Kurt Alme filed to run, and 3 minutes later Steve Daines withdrew. At 5:02 p.m. Daines announced his withdrawal and endorsed Alme. The last minute switch was seen as controversial.[5] Daines's maneuver has been criticized by members of both parties.[6][7] After the announcement, the Montana Republican Party announced they would not endorse any candidates in any federal races, saying it "supports a competitive primary process to let voters pick their preferred candidates."[8]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Kurt Alme, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana (2017–2020, 2025–2026)[9]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]Withdrawn
[edit]- Steve Daines, incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present) (endorsed Alme)[12]
Endorsements
[edit]- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[13] (previously endorsed Daines)[14]
- U.S. senators
- Steve Daines, Montana (2015–present)[12]
- Tim Sheehy, Montana (2025–present)[15]
- Statewide officials
- Greg Gianforte, governor of Montana (2021–present)[15]
- Organizations
- Executive branch officials
Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[14] (endorsed Alme after Daines withdrew)[13]
- Organizations
- Political parties
Fundraising
[edit]Italics indicate a withdrawn candidate.
| Campaign finance reports as of May 13, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Steve Daines (R) | $8,335,510 | $4,168,226 | $4,275,067 |
| Kurt Alme (R) | $1,184,127 | $261,875 | $922,256 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[21] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kurt Alme |
Lee Calhoun |
Charles WalkingChild |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton[22][A] | April 29 – May 7, 2026 | — (RV) | — | 73% | 12% | 15% | — |
Results
[edit]
|
Alme 50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
|
|
Alme 40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
|
Walking Child 40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
90–100%
|
Other 30–40% Tie
40–50% Tie
50% Tie
No Votes
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kurt Alme | 128,716 | 76.1 | |
| Republican | Lee Calhoun | 23,872 | 14.1 | |
| Republican | Charles WalkingChild | 16,474 | 9.7 | |
| Total votes | 169,062 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Five candidates stood in the Democratic primary. By the end of March, the Democratic field had collectively raised $123,629.43, the vast majority of which was by Reilly Neill, a former state legislator. Neill launched her campaign for Senate immediately following Jon Tester's loss to Tim Sheehy in 2024, and had run a write-in campaign in 2024 for the second district to the U.S. house, after John Driscoll, the Democratic candidate, refused to spend more than $5,000 on his campaign.[24] A poll conducted in late April and early May for the Montana Free Press by Eagleton suggested that the Democratic candidates for Senate were largely unknown by Montanans.[22]
Alani Bankhead, an Air Force veteran based in Helena, had raised just over $10,000 by the end of March, leaving her at a heavy financial disadvantage. However, in May, the Progressive Vet PAC (political action committee) spent $592,000 on mailers in support of Bankhead.[25] Meanwhile, the More Jobs, Less Government PAC invested in ads attacking Neill as a liberal, and saying that Bankhead would work with Donald Trump.[26][27] The Progressive Vet PAC, founded in April 2026, had former Democratic state representative Moffie Funk as its treasurer, while the More Jobs, Less Government PAC worked to promote the election of Sheehy, a Republican, in 2024. Financial filings by the More Jobs, Less Government PAC declared that their ads were in support of Bankhead, although the Progressive Vet PAC has said that the attack ads are designed to elevate Neill over Bankhead.[25][26]
Brian Miller, a candidate for the U.S. House in the second district, suggested that Progressive Vet's spending was designed to benefit independent candidate Seth Bodnar, in the hopes Bankhead would win the primary and drop out in support of Bodnar. Neill publicly stated she would not drop out of the general election, and when asked by the Montana Free Press if she would drop out, Bankhead said "not only no, but hell no".[25]
Both Neill and Bankhead campaigned in rural areas of Montana. Neill supported expansion of the Family Medical Leave Act, new educational grants, and rural healthcare, while Bankhead advocated for cuts to red tape, greater accountability in government, and protecting children and the elderly.[28]
The Associated Press called the primary for Bankhead at 9:53pm on election night. Preliminary figures showed Bankhead with 44% of the vote to Neill's 33%. Michael Black Wolf, a tribal historic preservation officer from the Fort Belknap Indian Community, placed third with 13%.[29][30] Speaking to KTVH about the results of the primary, Jeremy Johnson, a professor from Carroll College who chairs their Department of Political Science and International Relations, said that Republicans were likely to prefer running against both a Democrat and independent, and "if that could be consolidated down to one candidate, it'd be interesting to see what that could look like in November".[31]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Alani Bankhead, Air Force lieutenant colonel and leadership coach[32]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Michael Black Wolf, tribal historic preservation officer at Fort Belknap Indian Community[33]
- Michael Hummert, retired remodeling contractor and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024[34]
- Christopher Kehoe, arts administrator[10][35]
- Reilly Neill, former state representative from the 62nd district (2013–2015)[36]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Kathleen McLaughlin, homemaker (running for Montana House of Representatives)[37]
Declined
[edit]- Jon Tester, former U.S. senator (2007–2025)[38]
Endorsements
[edit]- Statewide officials
- Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana (2005–2013)[25]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 13, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | $23,884 | $11,307 | $13,737 |
| Michael Black Wolf (D) | $26,144 | $25,616 | $528 |
| Michael Hummert (D) | $12,230 | $3,192 | $9,783 |
| Reilly Neill (D) | $293,990 | $220,637 | $73,353 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[21] | |||
Results
[edit]
|
Bankhead 30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
|
Neill 20–30%
30–40%
40–50%
|
Black Wolf 30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
|
Other 30–40% Tie
|
|
Bankhead 20–30%
30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
|
Neill 20–30%
30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
|
Black Wolf 30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
|
|
Kehoe 30–40%
|
Hummert 40–50%
50–60%
90–100%
|
Other 20–30% Tie
30–40% Tie
40–50% Tie
50% Tie
No Votes
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alani Bankhead | 48,772 | 43.6 | |
| Democratic | Reilly Neill | 36,880 | 33.0 | |
| Democratic | Michael Black Wolf | 14,678 | 13.1 | |
| Democratic | Christopher Kehoe | 7,108 | 6.4 | |
| Democratic | Michael Hummert | 4,305 | 3.9 | |
| Total votes | 111,743 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]The Libertarian primary was contested by two candidates — Clancy resident Tom Jandron, and Billings pharmacist Kyle Austin, twice a candidate in the Republican U.S. House primary for the 2nd district.[39] Jandron was unanimously endorsed by Libertarian delegates for Senate at the party's April convention, with the party stating that he was more ideologically aligned to libertarian ideals than Austin.[40]
Austin opposed increasing the size of the federal government and the national debt. He expressed concern about changes by Congress in 2025 to limit access to Medicaid, but supported work requirements for benefits. Jandron supported the Defend the Guard proposal, said that Republicans in Montana had not done enough to counter rising spending or government surveillance, and described himself as an ideological libertarian, having been a member of the party for five years.[41]
Austin won the primary, but was disavowed by the Montana Libertarian Party.[31]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Kyle Austin, pharmacist and Republican candidate for Montana's 2nd congressional district in 2022 and 2024[42]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]- Political parties
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 20, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Kyle Austin (L) | $262,095 | $233,572 | $28,523 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[21] | |||
Results
[edit]
|
Austin 50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
90–100%
|
Jandron 50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
|
Other 50% Tie
|
|
Austin 50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
|
Jandron 50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
|
Other 50% Tie
No Votes
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Kyle Austin | 1,819 | 53.3 | |
| Libertarian | Tom Jandron | 1,592 | 46.7 | |
| Total votes | 3,411 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar announced his candidacy as an independent on March 4, 2026, two months after he resigned from the university.[44][45] He entered the race with the backing of former Democratic senator Jon Tester. Bodnar submitted 29,964 signatures from 52 of Montana's 56 counties to qualify for the ballot. Of those, 21,284 were accepted, exceeding the required 13,327 signatures.[46][47][48] Paid signature gatherers who worked on behalf of the Bodnar campaign are under investigation by the Cascade County Sheriff's Office.[49] According to the Cascade County Sheriff's Department, the Bodnar campaign is fully cooperating with the investigation and is not itself accused of wrongdoing.
Declared
[edit]- Seth Bodnar, former president of the University of Montana (2018–2026)[50]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 13, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Seth Bodnar (I) | $2,113,231 | $1,149,310 | $963,921 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[21] | |||
General election
[edit]Campaign
[edit]At a June 15 press conference, her first after winning the primary, Bankhead stated she would remain in the race and called upon Bodnar to drop out, citing a gender discrimination lawsuit filed against the University of Montana (UM) in 2021. A spokesperson for the Bodnar campaign said that he had taken claims of discrimination seriously while president of UM, and that no wrongdoing had been found as a result of the lawsuit.[51]
Bodnar also faced criticism from Montana Republicans, who called him an "independent in name only" and portrayed him as a Democrat seeking to avoid the party label.[52][53] A Republican-aligned super PAC pointed to Bodnar's registration as a Democrat while he lived in Connecticut in 2012; Montana does not register voters by party.[53] His advisers said that he would not join either the Democratic or Republican caucus if elected, and Bodnar said he rejected the idea that he would have to submit to a party leader.[53]
As polls show Alme likely to win a three-way race, Democratic leaders increasingly called on their nominee, Bankhead, to drop out of the race, believing Bodnar was their best hope to beat Alme.[citation needed]
Since mid-July, Montana Freedom PAC, a political action committee supporting Bodnar, has paid for signs and digital advertising suggesting Bankhead should leave the race. As of early August the committee had spent more than $1 million on advertising benefiting Bodnar.[54][55]
On the deadline for candidate withdrawal, August 10,[17] HuffPost reported that Bankhead was choosing to stay in the race, keeping it a three-way contest.[56][better source needed]
Republicans criticized Bodnar over a transgender athlete's participation in women's sports during his presidency of the University of Montana.[57][58] Asked about the issue at an August campaign event, Bodnar said he favored fairness in women's sports but believed parents and children should make their own decisions.[59] Alme also criticized diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) and accused Bodnar of supporting transgender athletes' participation in girls' sports.[59][60]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[61] | Solid R | September 15, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ[62] | Likely R | September 18, 2026 |
| The Economist[63][b] | Safe R | September 18, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne[64] | Likely R | September 19, 2026 |
| Fox News[65] | Solid R | August 18, 2026 |
| Inside Elections[66] | Solid R | September 17, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[67] | Likely R | September 18, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] | Safe R | August 26, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin[69] | Solid R | September 19, 2026 |
| Split Ticket[70] | Safe R | September 20, 2026 |
Endorsements
[edit]- U.S. senators
- Max Baucus, former Montana (1978–2014) (Democratic)[77][78]
- Joe Manchin, former West Virginia (2010–2025) (Independent; Democratic until 2024)[79]
- Jon Tester, former Montana (2007–2025) (Democratic)[53][78]
- U.S. representatives
- Adam Kinzinger, former IL-16 (2011–2023) (Republican)[80]
- Statewide officials
- Marc Racicot, former governor of Montana (1993–2001) (Republican)[81][78]
- Nancy Keenan, former superintendent of public instruction of Montana (1989–2001) (Democratic)[82]
- State legislators
- Bryce Bennett, former state senator from the 50th district (2019–2021) (Democratic)[83]
- Dorothy Bradley, former state representative from the 79th district (1971–1979, 1985–1993) (Democratic)[78]
- Party officials
- Andrew Yang, co-chair of the Forward Party (2022–present) and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate (Forward)[84]
- Individuals
- Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn[53]
- Michael Novogratz, co-founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital LP[53]
- Labor unions
- Montana AFL-CIO[85]
- Montana Federation of Public Employees[86]
- SEIU 775 Montana[87]
- Teamsters Local 2[85]
- Organizations
- American Association for Justice PAC[88]
- End Citizens United[89]
- Forward Montana[90]
- Independent Leadership Council[75]
- League of Conservation Voters Action Fund[88]
- Montana Conservation Voters[91]
- Montanans for Public Lands[17]
- Planned Parenthood[92]
- VoteVets[17]
- Political parties
- Political parties
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Kurt Alme (R) | $1,984,860 | $534,142 | $1,450,718 |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | $58,829 | $37,011 | $21,484 |
| Kyle Austin (L) | $262,194 | $242,362 | $19,832 |
| Seth Bodnar (I) | $3,238,150 | $2,260,371 | $977,779 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[21] | |||
Polling
[edit]- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kurt Alme (R) |
Alani Bankhead (D) |
Seth Bodnar (I) |
Undecided | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ[96] | through September 15, 2026 | September 22, 2026 | 42.4% | 18.2% | 27.4% | 12.0% | Alme +15.0% |
| FiftyPlusOne[97] | through September 15, 2026 | September 22, 2026 | 42.4% | 18.8% | 27.3% | 11.5% | Alme +15.1% |
| Race to the WH[98] | through September 15, 2026 | September 18, 2026 | 43.3% | 21.0% | 27.1% | 8.6%[c] | Alme +16.2% |
| Silver Bulletin[69] | through September 15, 2026 | September 18, 2026 | 42.6% | 21.9% | 26.1% | 9.4% | Alme +16.5% |
| Average | 42.7% | 20.0% | 27.0% | 10.3% | Alme +15.7% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kurt Alme (R) |
Alani Bankhead (D) |
Seth Bodnar (I) |
Kyle Austin (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R)[99] | September 14–15, 2026 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 23% | 24% | – | 9%[d] |
| Aspect Strategic[100][B] | September 7–15, 2026 | 715 (LV) | – | 44% | 14% | 32% | 3% | 7% |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics[101][C] | August 27 – September 7, 2026 | 845 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 38% | 16% | 30% | 5% | 11%[e] |
| Peak Insights[102][D] | August 23–25, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 19% | 22% | 2% | 13% |
| Hart Research (D)[103][E] | August 1–4, 2026 | 800 (LV) | – | 45% | 15% | 30% | 6% | 4% |
| 46% | – | 46% | – | 8% | ||||
| 52% | 38% | – | – | 10% | ||||
| Tavern Research (D)[104] | July 23–27, 2026 | 517 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 24% | 25% | 2% | — |
| 49% | 24% | 27% | — | — | ||||
| GQR (D)[105][F] | July 23–26, 2026 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 22% | 27% | 6% | 4% |
| Bullfinch Group (R)[106] | July 13–16, 2026 | 793 (LV) | ± 3.48% | 36% | 22% | 24% | — | 18% |
| GrayHouse (R)[107] | June 23–24, 2026 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 25% | 17% | 3% | 13% |
| Hart Research (D)[108][G] | June 18–24, 2026 | 800 (LV) | — | 47% | 22% | 25% | — | 6% |
| Tavern Research (D)[109][107] | June 16–19, 2026 | 400 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 49% | 26% | 24% | 2% | — |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[110][H] | June 8–11, 2026 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 25% | 20% | 4% | 7% |
Kurt Alme vs. Alani Bankhead vs. Kyle Austin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kurt Alme (R) |
Alani Bankhead (D) |
Kyle Austin (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research (D)[104] | July 23–27, 2026 | 517 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 59% | 41% | — | — |
| 56% | 36% | 8% | — | ||||
| GQR (D)[105][F] | July 23–26, 2026 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 40% | 13% | 4% |
| 52% | 44% | — | 4% | ||||
| Hart Research (D)[108][G] | June 18–24, 2026 | 800 (LV) | — | 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
| Tavern Research (D)[109] | June 16–19, 2026 | 400 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 56% | 44% | — | — |
Kurt Alme vs. Seth Bodnar vs. Kyle Austin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kurt Alme (R) |
Seth Bodnar (I) |
Kyle Austin (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research (D)[104] | July 23–27, 2026 | 517 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 45% | 5% | — | — |
| 51% | 49% | — | — | — | ||||
| GQR (D)[105][F] | July 23–26, 2026 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 44% | 11% | — | 5% |
| 44% | 50% | — | — | 6% | ||||
| Hart Research (D)[108][G] | June 18–24, 2026 | 800 (LV) | — | 47% | 45% | — | — | 8% |
| Tavern Research (D)[109] | June 16–19, 2026 | 400 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 50% | 50% | — | — | — |
| Tavern Research (D)[111][F] | May 13–18, 2026 | 607 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 50% | 50% | — | — | — |
| Change Research (D)[112][I] | March 17–20, 2026 | 616 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 35% | — | 2%[f] | 26% |
Kurt Alme vs. Reilly Neill vs. Seth Bodnar
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kurt Alme (R) |
Reilly Neill (D) |
Seth Bodnar (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research (D)[111][F] | May 13–18, 2026 | 607 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 46% | 24% | 26% | 3%[g] | — |
| 58% | 42% | — | — | — |
Steve Daines vs. Reilly Neill vs. Seth Bodnar
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Reilly Neill (D) |
Seth Bodnar (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & Polling[113] | February 14–18, 2026 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 25% | 16% | - | 7% |
| 56% | 37% | — | ||||||
| 51% | — | 42% | ||||||
| yes. every kid.[114] | January 23–26, 2026 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 19% | 15% | 3%[h] | 20% |
Steve Daines vs. Seth Bodnar as a Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Seth Bodnar (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & Polling[113] | February 14–18, 2026 | 607 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 40% | 6% |
Kurt Alme vs. generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kurt Alme (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research (D)[109] | June 16–19, 2026 | 400 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 56% | 44% | — |
| Tavern Research (D)[111][F] | May 13–18, 2026 | 607 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 56% | 44% | — |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kurt Alme | ||||
| Democratic | Alani Bankhead | ||||
| Libertarian | Kyle Austin | ||||
| Independent | Seth Bodnar | ||||
| Total votes | 100.0 | ||||
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
- ↑ Kyle Austin (L) with 4.7%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 5%
- ↑ "Would not vote" with 2%
- ↑ Tom Jandron (L) with 3%
- ↑ "Someone else/Other" with 2%; "Do not plan to vote" with 1%
- Partisan clients
- ↑ Poll sponsored by the Montana Free Press
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Montana Freedom PAC, which supports Bodnar
- ↑ Poll sponsored by the Montana Free Press
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Alme's campaign
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Forward Montana, which supports Bodnar
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll commissioned by Contours Inc.
- 1 2 3 Poll commissioned by The Majority Institute, a research firm that supports Democrats
- ↑ Poll commissioned by The Political Company, a consulting firm that supports Republicans
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Independent Candidate Action, which supports Bodnar
References
[edit]- ↑ "Montana Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
- ↑ Rosenberg, Benjamin (November 4, 2020). "Greg Gianforte flips Montana governorship to Republicans". Vox.
- ↑ https://www.npr.org/2024/11/09/nx-s1-5181908/with-democratic-senator-jon-testers-loss-in-montana-republicans-take-full-control
- ↑ "2026 PRIMARY AND GENERAL ELECTION CALENDAR". Montana Secretary of State. October 2025.
- ↑ Browning, Kellen (March 5, 2026). "A Sly Political Switcheroo Stuns Montana and Starts a New Senate Fight". The New York Times.
- ↑ Weaver, Al; Brooks, Emily (March 7, 2026). "Daines's last-minute retirement maneuver leaves Capitol Hill stunned — and some frustrated". The Hill. Retrieved September 8, 2026.
- ↑ Cohen, Lauren Fox, Ethan (March 5, 2026). "Montana GOP Sen. Steve Daines won't seek reelection in shock announcement at filing deadline | CNN Politics". CNN.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - 1 2 "Montana GOP won't endorse in federal races this cycle". News From The States. Retrieved March 6, 2026.
- ↑ "Trump backs former federal prosecutor for Daines Senate seat". The Hill. Retrieved March 6, 2026.
- 1 2 3 "FEDERAL PRIMARY 2026 Candidate List". candidatefiling.mt.gov. Retrieved March 5, 2026.
- ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1927829". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved December 9, 2025.
- 1 2 Drew, Micah (March 5, 2026). "With just minutes before filing deadline closes, Daines shocks Montana by withdrawing • Daily Montanan". Daily Montanan. Retrieved March 5, 2026.
- 1 2 "Trump Endorses Alme for Montana Senate as Daines Steps Aside". Bloomberg. Retrieved March 5, 2026.
- 1 2 Miller, Blair (April 23, 2025). "Daines gets Trump's endorsement as he readies 2026 Senate reelection bid". Independent Record. Retrieved April 23, 2025.
- 1 2 "Kurt Alme files for U.S. Senate, immediately endorsed by outgoing Sen. Daines, President Trump". News From The States. Retrieved March 5, 2026.
In his announcement, Alme noted he also received endorsements from President Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy, and Gov. Greg Gianforte.
- ↑ "AFP Action Endorses Kurt Alme for U.S. Senate". AFP Action. May 7, 2026. Retrieved July 29, 2026.
- 1 2 3 4 Drew, Micah (July 24, 2026). "Independent earns progressive endorsements in Montana Senate race". KPVI.
- ↑ "RJC Proudly Endorses 8 GOP US Senate Candidates in Key 2026 Races". Republican Jewish Coalition. April 21, 2026. Retrieved May 15, 2026.
- ↑ "Leading Nat'l Pro-Life Group Endorses Kurt Alme for MT-Sen". SBA Pro-Life America. April 22, 2026. Retrieved April 23, 2026.
- ↑ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
- 1 2 3 4 5 "2026 Election United States Senate – Montana". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 6, 2026.
- 1 2 Lutey, Tom (May 19, 2026). "Montana U.S. Senate candidates largely unknown to voters, poll finds". Montana Free Press. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- 1 2 3 "Primary Election - June 2, 2026". Montana Secretary of State. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- ↑ Lutey, Tom (May 8, 2026). "In Senate race, underfunded Democrats try to fend off a challenge from the middle". Montana Free Press. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- 1 2 3 4 Lutey, Tom (May 15, 2026). "The mailers fueling speculation in Montana's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate". Montana Free Press. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- 1 2 Lutey, Tom (May 26, 2026). "The Sheehy-supporting PAC trying to define Montana's Democratic Senate candidates". Montana Free Press. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- ↑ Everett, Burgess (June 1, 2026). "Why groups are spending big in Montana's Democratic Senate primary". Semafor. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- ↑ Hansen, Jordan (May 28, 2026). "Neill, Bankhead look to court rural voters in Senate primary". Daily Montanan. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- ↑ Hansen, Jordan (June 4, 2026). "Bankhead wins Dem Senate primary". Daily Montana. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 2, 2026.
- ↑ Lutey, Tom (June 2, 2026). "Republican Kurt Alme and Democrat Alani Bankhead declared Senate primary winners by The Associated Press". Montana Free Press. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- 1 2 Ambarian, Jonathon (June 3, 2026). "Political science professor reacts to Montana primary results". KTVH. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- ↑ Ragar, Shaylee (January 6, 2026). "Two more Montana Democrats launch congressional campaigns". Montana Public Radio. Retrieved January 6, 2026.
- ↑ Ambarian, Jonathon (November 14, 2025). "Montana U.S. Senate race: Daines up for third term, three Democrats running". KTVH. Retrieved November 17, 2025.
- ↑ "Filing FEC-1864033". Federal Elections Commission. Retrieved January 17, 2025.
- ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1953057". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved March 22, 2026.
- ↑ Batura, Sean (November 19, 2024). "Park County resident runs for U.S. Senate". The Livingston Enterprise. Retrieved November 23, 2024.
- ↑ McLaughlin, Kate. "McLaughlin Withdraws". Facebook. Retrieved March 2, 2026.
- ↑ Guggenheim, Benjamin; Kashinsky, Lisa; Razor, Calen; McCarthy, Mia (June 25, 2025). "Johnson warns about a Medicaid backlash". Politico. Retrieved June 25, 2025.
Jon Tester won't run for elected office again after losing his Senate seat in the 2024 election, telling our Garrett Downs he's happy in retirement on his Montana farm. He would have been a top recruit for Democrats to take on GOP Sen. Steve Daines next year
- ↑ Lutey, Tom (March 18, 2026). "Is Montana having a Libertarian moment?". Montana Free Press. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- 1 2 Lepeska, David (April 29, 2026). "Libertarians back Clancy's Jandron for U.S. Senate". The Monitor. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- ↑ Ambarian, Jonathon (May 7, 2026). "Primary 2026: Two Libertarian candidates seek chance to provide alternative in U.S. Senate race". KTVH. Archived from the original on June 4, 2026. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
- ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1930861". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved January 6, 2026.
- ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1955829". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved March 22, 2026.
- ↑ Brown, Matthew (March 4, 2026). "Former Montana university leader Seth Bodnar launches independent campaign against GOP Sen. Daines". Associated Press. Retrieved March 5, 2026.
- ↑ Federal Elections Commission, United States. "Seth Bodnar Filing". Seth Bodnar Filing March 4. FEC. Retrieved May 29, 2026.
- ↑ https://sosmt.gov/counties-submit-candidate-petition-signatures-to-montana-secretary-of-states-office/
- ↑ Drew, Micah (May 26, 2026). "Bodnar outraises Alme in pre-primary filings, submits signatures for ballot". Daily Montanan. Retrieved June 8, 2026.
- ↑ Lutey, Tom (March 4, 2026). "Former UM president Seth Bodnar enters Montana Senate race as independent". Montana Free Press. Retrieved June 8, 2026.
- ↑ https://montanafreepress.org/2026/09/10/cascade-county-investigating-independent-signatures/
- ↑ Ambarian, Jonathon (March 4, 2026). "Bodnar announces independent run for Senate". KXLH. Retrieved March 4, 2026.
- ↑ Thomas, Mariah (June 15, 2026). "In Montana Senate Race, Democrat Bankhead Doubles Down on Bid Against Bodnar". Flathead Beacon. Archived from the original on June 15, 2026. Retrieved June 15, 2026.
- ↑ Lutey, Tom (June 26, 2026). "Bodnar's big gamble: Why the independent is pushing for Montana's nonpartisan era". Montana Free Press. Retrieved August 31, 2026.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 Scherer, Michael (April 21, 2026). "Big Sky Crack-Up". The Atlantic. Retrieved April 27, 2026.
- ↑ Lutey, Tom (August 6, 2026). "Scenes from a dropout deadline". Montana Free Press. Retrieved August 24, 2026.
- ↑ "Montana Freedom PAC, committee C00943910". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 24, 2026.
- ↑ Blumenthal, Paul (August 10, 2026). "Montana Democrat Stays In Senate Race Despite Pressure To Drop Out". The Huffington Post. Retrieved August 10, 2026.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ↑ Brown, Matthew (March 4, 2026). "Montana Republican US Sen. Steve Daines drops reelection bid in surprise move". Associated Press. Retrieved September 23, 2026.
- ↑ Scherer, Michael (April 21, 2026). "Big Sky Crack-Up". The Atlantic. Retrieved September 23, 2026.
- 1 2 Sakariassen, Alex (September 4, 2026). "Bodnar wades into deep red Bitterroot water". The Pulp. Retrieved September 23, 2026.
- ↑ Plutt, J. P. (September 16, 2026). "U.S. Senate candidate Alme makes Dillon visit". Dillon Tribune. Retrieved September 23, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Senate Ratings". Decision Desk HQ. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Senate Forecast". The Economist. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Congressional Forecast". FiftyPlusOne. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ Numa, Rémy (August 18, 2026). "Fox News Power Rankings: As Democrats turn left, Black voters tap the brakes". Fox News. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2026". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2026.
- 1 2 Silver, Nate; McKown-Dawson, Eli (September 19, 2026) [August 11, 2026]. "FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast". Silver Bulletin. Archived from the original on September 20, 2026. Retrieved September 20, 2026 – via Substack.
- ↑ "Split Ticket 2026 Midterms Model". The Argument. Retrieved September 19, 2026 – via Substack.
- ↑ Mitola, Will (August 6, 2026). "Club for Growth PAC Endorses Kurt Alme in MT-SEN Race". Club for Growth. Retrieved September 22, 2026.
- ↑ Drew, Micah (July 24, 2026). "Independent earns progressive endorsements in Montana Senate race". News from the States. Retrieved September 22, 2026.
- ↑ Thomas, Mariah (September 22, 2026). "U.S. Chamber of Commerce Backs Alme in Senate Race". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved September 22, 2026.
- ↑ Ochenski, George (July 10, 2026). "Mighty strange times in Montana's Senate race". News from the States. Retrieved September 22, 2026.
- 1 2 Murphy, Clayton (September 18, 2026). "Interest group money rolls in to Montana's congressional races". Montana Public Radio. Retrieved September 22, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Federal Endorsements". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 16, 2026.
- ↑ Browning, Kellen; Healy, Jack (June 15, 2026). "A G.O.P. Senate Seat in Montana Seemed Vulnerable. Then, the Left Splintered". The New York Times. Retrieved June 15, 2026.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - 1 2 3 4 Graf, Carly (June 15, 2026). "Bankhead insists she won't drop from Senate race; Bodnar rolls out flashy endorsements". Billings Gazette. Retrieved June 18, 2026.
- ↑ Svitek, Patrick (July 24, 2026). "Joe Manchin reenters the political orbit with a new independent experiment". CNN. Retrieved July 30, 2026.
- ↑ "Inside the Montana Senate race giving both Democrats and the GOP heartburn". Newsweek. July 12, 2026. Retrieved July 22, 2026.
- ↑ Healy, Jack (April 23, 2026). "An Independent Senate Hopeful Tries to Scare Off Montana Democrats". The New York Times. Retrieved April 27, 2026.
- ↑ Keenan, Nancy (June 9, 2026). "Viewpoint: The Independent Path to Protecting Our Democracy". Missoula Current. Retrieved June 17, 2026.
- ↑ "Montana Democrats, it's time for a hard truth". Billings Gazette. July 14, 2026. Retrieved July 22, 2026.
- ↑ Yang, Andrew (April 27, 2026). "Seth Bodnar". Substack. Retrieved April 27, 2026.
- 1 2 Foley, Erin (July 14, 2026). "Montana's working families cannot afford more of the same in the U.S. Senate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved July 22, 2026.
- ↑ Williams, A. J. (August 5, 2026). "Briefs: Bodnar wins union endorsements; Renovations planned for Lewis and Clark museum". Montana Public Radio. Retrieved August 8, 2026.
- ↑ "SEIU 775 Montana members are proud to endorse Independent candidate Seth Bodnar for the United States Senate". Facebook. SEIU 775. Retrieved August 8, 2026.
- 1 2 Lutey, Tom (April 17, 2026). "Republican, independent candidates outraise Democrats in federal races". Montana Free Press. Retrieved April 27, 2026.
- ↑ Thomas, Mariah (August 5, 2026). "Behind the Push to Clear the Field in Montana's Senate Race". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved August 8, 2026.
- ↑ Boyer, Alice (August 6, 2026). "Seth Bodnar Has Earned Our Endorsement". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved August 8, 2026.
- ↑ "MCV endorses Independent candidate Seth Bodnar for US Senate". Montana Conservation Voters. Retrieved June 18, 2026.
- ↑ Drew, Micah (September 22, 2026). "Planned Parenthood endorses independent in Montana Senate race". Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Retrieved September 22, 2026.
- ↑ "Candidates". Forward Party. Retrieved June 18, 2026.
- ↑ Evans, Jordan Willow (August 26, 2026). "Reform Party Makes Candidate Endorsements in Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Montana". Independent Political Report. Retrieved August 26, 2026.
- ↑ "Montana Libertarian Party will not endorse Austin". Montana Libertarian Party. June 3, 2026. Retrieved August 25, 2026.
- ↑ "FiftyPlusOne - Montana General Senate Election Polls and Average for the 2026 General Election". Decision Desk HQ. Retrieved September 14, 2026.
- ↑ "FiftyPlusOne - Montana General Senate Election Polls and Average for the 2026 General Election". fiftyplusone.news. Retrieved August 15, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Senate Polling". Race to the White House. Retrieved August 4, 2026.
- ↑ "Latest Survey: Alme Leads as Montana's Senate Opposition Splits". Quantus Insights. September 17, 2026. Retrieved September 18, 2026.
- ↑ Everett, Burgess (September 22, 2026). "New Montana Senate poll from Aspect Strategic, commissioned by Montana Freedom PAC, shows Democrat Bankhead cratering
Alme (R) 44
Bodnar (I) 32
Bankhead (D) 14
Memo says messaging can help Bodnar consolidate support: "Bodnar's strategic imperative is to consolidate the left while making targeted inroads on the right"". Twitter. Retrieved September 23, 2026. - ↑ Lutey, Tom (September 11, 2026). "Alme holds an 8-point lead over Bodnar in Senate race". Montana Free Press. Retrieved September 12, 2026.
- ↑ "Alme Holds Commanding Lead — No Viable Path for Bodnar" (PDF). Peak Insights. September 4, 2026. Retrieved September 8, 2026.
- ↑ "Results of New Polling on the Montana U.S. Senate Election". Forward Montana. August 7, 2026. Retrieved August 13, 2026.
- 1 2 3 "MT-SEN General Toplines" (PDF). Tavern Research. July 27, 2026. Retrieved July 27, 2026.
- 1 2 3 Morris, G. Elliott (July 28, 2026). "To defeat Republicans, Democrats may have to sit some races out". Strength in Numbers. Archived from the original on July 28, 2026. Retrieved July 28, 2026.
- ↑ @PollTracker2024 (July 28, 2026). "Montana U.S. Senate Poll" (Tweet). Retrieved July 28, 2026 – via X (formerly Twitter).
- 1 2 Rubashkin, Jacob (June 30, 2026). "Montana Senate: New Poll Confirms GOP Edge". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 7, 2026.
- 1 2 3 "Poll Finds Bodnar Best Positioned to Beat Alme, but Only in a Two-way Race". Hart Research. July 7, 2026. Retrieved July 21, 2026 – via Google Drive.
- 1 2 3 4 "MT Senate: General Toplines" (PDF). Tavern Research. Retrieved July 26, 2026.
- ↑ Eaton, Jake (June 17, 2026). "Montana U.S. Senate" (PDF). The Political Company. Retrieved June 18, 2026.
- 1 2 3 "MT Senate: Bodnar Ties Alme 50-50 head-to-head". Tavern Research. May 19, 2026. Retrieved May 20, 2026.
- ↑ "Independent Candidate Action – Montana Senate – Toplines – March 2026". Change Research. March 25, 2026. Retrieved June 8, 2026.
- 1 2 Olson, Dustin (February 23, 2026). "Strategic Insights: Montana US Senate General Election Mathups". American Pulse Research & Polling. Retrieved February 24, 2026 – via Google Drive.
- ↑ Foster, Scott (February 26, 2026). "Montana Voters Want More Education Freedom". yes. every kid. foundation. Retrieved March 1, 2026.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites